Tag Archives: Banks insolvency

Understanding The Truman Show

Posted on by Lan Pham   

The Truman Show goes on, as local gas pump prices have reportedly jumped more than 10%  since last evening, after unlimited quantities of dollars had been secured for the levitation of the largest member banks of the Federal Reserve System, and more generally, the entire system.

Quantitative Easing 0-1-2-3∞ & The Federal Reserve’s Love Affair with its Banks and Mortgage Bonds: Levitating The Black Hole and Beyond will test its limits against time (t) such as reported last month, Germany is scrambling to count its gold bars being held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York-London corridor. But perhaps Germany had reportedly already quietly withdrawn two-thirds of it home in 2001 after the creation of the euro (the Federal Reserve has been printing euros for its member banks through currency swaps). Hong Kong removed its gold from London in 2009 and Venezuela in 2012, which underscores confidence in a system that relies on QE (faith-based accounting & printing money) since the banking and financial system crisis-collapse in 2008 and more broadly, sustained shifts away from the U.S. dollar observed in currency holdings over time.

Carl Bernstein, one of the two journalists who broke the Nixon-Watergate scandal, wrote an interesting 25,000-word cover story published in Rolling Stone magazine on October 20, 1977, entitled, “The CIA and The Media.”

The article was published in 1977, so we can be 99% certain (+/- 100% margin of error) that such practices have been sharply curtailed. We will soon look at the $1,000 trillion in derivatives, but in the meantime, a few interesting snippets from Bernstein on the free press, journalism:

In many instances, CIA documents show, journalists were engaged to perform tasks for the CIA with the consent of the managements of America’s leading news organizations. The history of the CIA’s involvement with the American press continues to be shrouded by an official policy of obfuscation and deception for the following principal reasons:

 ■ The use of journalists has been among the most productive means of intelligence gathering employed by the CIA. Although the Agency has cut back sharply on the use of reporters since 1973 primarily as a result of pressure from the media), some journalist operatives are still posted abroad.

 ■ Further investigation into the matter, CIA officials say, would inevitably reveal a series of embarrassing relationships in the 1950s and 1960s with some of the most powerful organizations and individuals in American journalism.

 …Other organizations which cooperated with the CIA include the American Broadcasting Company [ABC], the National Broadcasting Company [NBC], the Associated Press[AP], United Press International [UPI], Reuters, Hearst Newspapers, Scripps Howard, Newsweek magazine, the Mutual Broadcasting System, the Miami Herald and the old Saturday Evening Post and New York Herald-Tribune.

 By far the most valuable of these associations, according to CIA officials, have been with the New York Times, CBS and Time Inc. The CIA’s use of the American news media has been much more extensive than Agency officials have acknowledged publicly or in closed sessions with members of Congress. Continue reading →

Quantitative Easing 0-1-2-3∞ & The Federal Reserve’s Love Affair with its Banks and Mortgage Bonds: Levitating The Black Hole

Posted on by Lan Pham   

“A black hole is a region of spacetime where gravity prevents anything, including light, from escaping… Around a black hole there is a mathematically defined surface called an event horizon that marks the point of no return.”—Wikipedia

When Did QE Stop?

To much frenzied media coverage, the Federal Reserve Bank announced a third round of quantitative easing “QE 3∞“ on September 13, 2012. The Federal Reserve will essentially print unlimited quantities of dollars to purchase agency mortgage bonds and maintain nominal interest rates targeted at 0% (“ZIRP”) to keep borrowing costs reasonable for its member banks, among others.

“QE 3∞” in 2012 is the unlimited version of “QE 1” in 2009 following the banking and financial system crisis in September 2008. What does this mean?

QE is simply the printing of dollars in paper or digital form by the quasi-private Federal Reserve Bank, as the Federal Reserve does not have this money. In QE 1 (web), the Federal Reserve Bank printed $1.25 trillion to purchase agency mortgage-backed securities (MBSs). Agency MBSs are mortgage bonds (akin to a mutual fund filled with mortgages, peoples’ homes) issued and guaranteed or held by the quasi-private Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

On a practical level this means the Federal Reserve Bank printed $1.25 trillion with a computer stroke and became the owner or recipient of homeowners’ mortgage payments.  The Federal Reserve will do this on an unlimited basis in QE 3 going forward, as it states ‘to foster maximum employment and price stability’.

What is it about the Federal Reserve Bank’s love affair with mortgage bonds that the media and the Federal Reserve will not speak of?

 I.  QE0: Insolvency of the Largest Banks in the Federal Reserve System

Let’s pause for a moment. The most significant QE was not even called QE. It was the suspension of the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s (FASB) mark-to-market accounting rule 157 in April 2009. The rule required banks to value assets on their balance sheets at current market price or fair value, but since 2009, became what the banks hope it is worth or what they paid for it.

Doing so helps insolvent banks avoid the appearance of insolvency by not having to write-down the amount of losses on assets, such as mortgage bonds, assuming there is a willing buyer (There isn’t really). Private sector financing for the housing market through demand for private label MBSs, which are mortgage bonds backed by mostly subprime mortgages reincarnated as prime issued and sold by the largest banks, collapsed since fall 2008.

Let’s give this FASB suspension of mark-to-market accounting event a name, QE0 , to mark the point of no return in April 2009 about six months after the banking and financial collapse in September 2008.

Following the collapse, lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives lined up to threaten FASB in a series of hearings to suspend mark-to-market accounting, as Representative Michael E. Capuano (D-Mass.) warned FASB’s chairman in March 2009: “Do not make us tell you what you have to do.” (Transcript of the U.S. House of Representatives Mark-to-Market Hearing, March 12, 2009). The American Bankers Association, Citigroup, and the Bank of New York Mellon Corp., the world’s largest custodian of financial assets, also pressured for the rule change (web).

[On a side note:  MIT finance professor-CBO chief economist revised my memo to say that assets may already fully reflect market values. After I was fired I learned that MIT Professor Deborah Lucas called by the U.S. President to CBO in 2009 (web) has a CBO economist sit on FASB. This CBO economist and CBO Director Elmendorf are part of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Robert Rubin is the project’s founder and Dr. Lawrence Summers, once chief advisor to the U.S. President, sits on its Advisory Council to promote economic growth and health care. Former Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin, and Lawrence Summers were instrumental in the proliferation of derivatives in the late 1990s. ]

Let’s look at a few simple charts. What does QE0 FASB look like for the largest banks?

Voodoo Assets and Liabilities Chart 1:U.S. Commercial Banks Net Worth: Assets minus Liabilities - Can you spot the banking and financial crisis?

From Voodoo Chart 1, was there a banking and financial crisis in 2008 that froze global markets? From the crisis in fall 2008 to 2009, there is no change between assets and liabilities! No change, for what has been considered the worst banking and financial crisis in a century (a few?). Continue reading →

Welcome to Economics Voodoo!

Posted on by Lan Pham   

It was not long ago in fall 2010 that I was a senior congressional staffer financial economist at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) when I was fired after 2 ½ months for writing about the damage from the banking and financial system collapse since fall 2008. The writings included ‘robo-signing’ foreclosures as symptomatic of deeper problems in the securitization of $7 trillion mortgage bonds that CBO denied was a problem and the condition of the nation’s banks.

I was told that CBO should take the lead in treating foreclosure problems as “the kind of event of the moment where we should be adding skepticism, not just repeating the hype in the press”  and my writing about it showed “poor judgment about what is important and what isn’t.” This came from my direct report, then-CBO assistant director and chief economist, currently MIT Professor of Finance Deborah Lucas who was called by the U.S. President in 2009 to serve in a leadership role at CBO. CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf, a Harvard Ph.D. economist, agreed that such writings lacked knowledge of economics and poor communication skills for not understanding what it meant to remove them.

For those unfamiliar, CBO is a small federal agency that scores (produces cost estimates) Congress’s bills and can make or break them with its scoring. CBO’s panel of economic advisors includes Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, former Federal Reserve economists, and distinguished economists from academia who are or were former scholars of the Federal Reserve.

Closure to the Congressional Inquiry

After over a year of congressional inquiry, my story was first made public in the Wall Street Journal, “Congress’s Number Cruncher Comes Under Fire,” (Feb. 2, 2012) what the Journal allowed the public to know. When the true nature of the issues would not come out, I was stunned that the congressional inquiry led by Senator Grassley, Ranking Member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, also declined to release my letter to the public to expose the issues. This happened during the week the New York Attorney’s General announced the lawsuit against MERS, but that too went silent a few days after the nationwide foreclosure settlement. All understood the ramifications of the NY AG lawsuit against MERS. Continue reading →